World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates


COARSE GRAINS: The 2017/18 outlook for U.S. feed grain supplies is virtually unchanged this month as an increase in sorghum beginning stocks is largely offset by reductions for barley and oats. Projected corn production for 2017/18 is unchanged at 14,065 million bushels. USDA will release the Acreage report on June 30, providing a survey-based estimate of corn area planted and a forecast of area harvested for grain. The season average corn price received by producers is unchanged from last month at $3.00 to $3.80 per bushel. WASDE-566-2 [Read the National Corn Growers Association statement.]

The increase for 2017/18 sorghum beginning stocks reflects a 5 million bushel reduction for 2016/17 food, seed, and industrial use based on reported sorghum used for ethanol production through April in the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. With other use categories unchanged, sorghum ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 5 million bushels.

This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, increased trade and reduced stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is down based on government data indicating lower-than-expected area in France and Germany. Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and yield, as wetter-than-normal conditions in Ontario and Quebec during May delayed plantings and are expected to reduce yield prospects. Ukraine corn production is raised based on reported planting progress to date indicating a level of planted area above previous expectations. Turkey’s barley production is raised as the impact of April dryness was not as severe as previously anticipated. For 2016/17, Brazil corn production is raised as above-normal rainfall in the Center-West during May boosts yield prospects. South Africa corn production is higher reflecting the latest production estimate from the government.

Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include higher projected corn exports for Ukraine and Russia, with increased corn imports for the EU. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month, with reductions for Canada, the EU and Russia more than offsetting increases for South Africa and Ukraine.

OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2017/18 are little changed from last month. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush projection for 2016/17. Soybean crush for 2016/17 is reduced 15 million bushels to 1,910 million mainly reflecting reduced domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 450 million bushels, up 15 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are also raised 15 million bushels to 495 million.

Price forecasts for 2017/18 are unchanged this month. The 2017/18 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $295 to $335 per short ton and 30 to 34 cents per pound, respectively.

The 2017/18 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production and stocks compared to last month. Higher cottonseed and sunflower seed production is partly offset by lower rapeseed. Sunflower seed production is raised for Ukraine on higher planted area based on reported planting progress to date. EU rapeseed production is down mainly on lower projected yields in Germany where crops experienced dry and sub-freezing conditions through key flowering stages.

Global oilseed production changes for 2016/17 include higher soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and higher peanut production in India. Global soybean production is raised 3.3 million tons to 351.3 million. The Brazil soybean crop is projected up 2.4 million tons to 114.0 million reflecting increased yields in more recently harvested areas, particularly Rio Grande do Sul. With higher global production in 2016/17, the beginning stocks for 2017/18 are raised 3.1 million tons to 93.2 million. The larger beginning stocks combined with a 0.5- million-ton reduction to Argentina soybean exports in 2017/18 results in a 3.4-million-ton increase to 92.2 million to global soybean stocks at the end of the 2017/18 marketing year.